Author: Tatiana Bailey
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Numbers show two sides of the economy
As summer comes to a close, it’s evident that economic growth and job growth are increasingly telling two different stories. The U.S. economy continued to moderately expand with a 1.5% annualized growth rate in the second quarter. But employment growth has slowed considerably. This divergence is important because for decades economic growth and job creation were often thought to move together. Part of this…
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Averages may not reflect reality of daily life
In an article last Sunday, I wrote about July’s modest increase in personal income but cautioned that looking at these aggregate statistics that include all income levels can be misleading. First, as a quick reminder, personal income includes wages and salaries, but it also includes income from other sources like investment returns from stock dividends,…
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A more accurate inflation measure still flags red | Tatiana Bailey
This past week we obtained another important data point on inflation and unfortunately it reinforces something consumers already know: that prices remain stubbornly high. The personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for inflation because it accounts for what economists call the substitution effect. This effect describes how consumers…
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Tatiana Bailey: Productivity gains appear to bolster our resilience
Between tariffs, exorbitant gas prices due to the Iran conflict and other significant price pressures, many people are wondering how the economy remains resilient. Also puzzling is how the broader economy is holding up with such weak hiring and employment growth. Let’s take a look. According to new research from the Federal Reserve of Boston,…
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Tatiana Bailey: Gas prices, lagging wages stir concern
Recent data shows that prices in July were 3.4% higher than they were a year ago, which is slightly down from June’s 3.5% rate although we are still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 2.5%. Inflation has moderated over the past two months largely…
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Tatiana Bailey: Looking forward after GDP report
Last week, the first estimate of gross domestic product, or real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2026, was released, and it showed a slowdown in economic activity across the U.S., although it is still in positive territory at 1.5% annualized (or 2.1% comparing to Q2 of last year). Declines in government spending and…
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State’s top ranking in education part of a virtuous cycle
Colorado was recently named the top state for education in the 2026 U.S. News & World Report rankings for best states. I often tout in presentations that our state is number two in the nation in terms of higher education, but experts know the main reason for that has been the high number of educated…
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Tatiana Bailey: Leader in ‘clean’ wind energy production? Texas
Last week, I talked about how oil price increases have been somewhat mitigated due to various factors including the lower global demand by China, which is aggressively pursuing electrification largely through the use of wind and solar. That made me curious about the current use of wind and solar in the U.S. Most people would…
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Economic bright spots, concerns at year’s halfway mark
Data through the first quarter of 2026 shows tenuous but continued resilience in the U.S. economy, with real, or inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product (GDP) growing at a 2.1% annualized rate. Another way to look at GDP is simply comparing to the same quarter last year — that growth rate was higher in Q1 of this…
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Tatiana Bailey: Stock market gyrations and what they might mean
Roughly 6 in 10 Americans own stocks, largely through retirement accounts. And about 75% of those retirement accounts are invested in stocks. This means millions of Americans’ retirement savings rise and fall with the stock market. This past week has been an interesting one. On Tuesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock index fell more than 2%,…