Colorado ski resorts’ high base elevations could improve snowpack compared to other Western states

Something hot is brewing in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 

As ocean temperatures across the globe reached new highs in July, an El Niño event forming along the equator in the eastern Pacific is beginning to ring alarm bells in the scientific community. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now gives this year’s El Niño a nearly 70 percent chance to be the hottest seen since record-keeping began in 1950. Some forecast models now predict a peak of 4°C above average around November.

This all but assures this year will reach ‘Super El Niño’ status, which is classified as a mere 2°C above average. 

“We’re expected to blow this out the door heading into this winter,” Alan Smith, a meteorologist and operations director for OpenSnow, told The Denver Gazette. OpenSnow tracks and predicts forecasts for ski and snow sports areas.

El Niño patterns historically bring wet winters to the southern Rockies, which gives Smith reason to think this winter will be an improvement from Colorado’s dismal dry spell last year, which included record-low snowpack and droves of early closures among ski resorts.

“Even in a warmer climate, it’s unlikely we’re going to have two extreme, warm years back to back like that … We see an above-average [snow] signal for southern and eastern Colorado,” Smith said. 

This bodes well for southwest Colorado’s San Juan Mountains and their ski resorts, including Telluride, Wolf Creek, Purgatory and Silverton, which Smith thinks will likely benefit from this year’s predicted storm path. 

As these low-pressure storm systems track across the southwest, they can induce easterly winds that drop precipitation in upslope storms along the Front Range. Eldora, Winter Park, Loveland and even Arapahoe Basin could see their snow totals benefit from upslope storm cycles, he said. 

Summit County resorts and other popular ski destinations may not be so lucky, though.

In northern and central Colorado, west of the Continental Divide, strong El Niños offer less certain outlooks.

“Breckenridge, Keystone, Copper, Vail, Beaver Creek, Aspen, Crested Butte, Steamboat, these areas, they can really go either way in these kinds of winters,” Smith noted. 

While the warmth of a Super El Niño increases the likelihood of storms in the Southern U.S., it can also help raise temperatures enough to melt snow into rain before it ever lands. Colorado, which boasts nine of the 10 highest-elevation ski resorts in the U.S., is uniquely positioned to avoid winter rain due to its towering mountains.

“Colorado is more resilient than just about any other area,” Smith said, while noting there could be effects on the quality or density of snow, though.