Mark Kiszla: How big a football geek is Sean Payton? Chiefs fixing to find out.
With Broncos coach Sean Payton, the hay is never in the barn, because he’s maniacally ripping apart every haystack for a needle.
Nobody in the NFL likes story time better than Payton. And everybody knows it. In fact, Broncos CEO Greg Penner once told me what Payton does best is win football games. But a close second? Talk.
As much as I enjoy poking fun at Payton for his never-satisfied, crabbypants demeanor, I also must tip my hat to him. After 50 years of having a front-row seat to great coaches in all sports work their craft, I can confidently tell you this: The X’s and O’s are important. But how a coach sets the narrative for a team can be the secret sauce.
Since he arrived in Denver, I’ve only heard Payton retell his hay-in-the-barn stories two dozen times.
The point is the same. Every. Single. Time. Payton is a football vampire. In the dead of night, he will grab another shot of caffeine and watch video until the white of his eyes turn red, looking for any little edge, right up until kickoff.
This explains why, when I asked veteran Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton how difficult it will be to sit on his keister and wait, seeing as Denver will be one of the last two teams to take the field during the opening week of the NFL season, he rolled his eyes at me.
“It’s exciting to be able to open the season on Monday Night Football, all the games are going to be done, college is done, everyone has played on Sunday … The only game is going to be on is Chiefs-Broncos,” Sutton said. “Yes, we have to wait that 30 extra hours …”
But the Broncos won’t be sitting on their keisters and twiddling their thumbs.
“I wouldn’t say we’re technically sitting on our tush,” said Sutton, who knows full well that Payton will be filling the Broncos with information until the coin flip in Kansas City.
With the opening week of the NFL season now a dress rehearsal that counts in the standings, the scoreboard often is a poor reflection of the talent level of all those players who sat out August.
Week 1 is all about the team that’s better prepared and up to speed.
This is where Payton’s football obsession that borders on geekdom should be a distinct advantage for the Broncos, whether they’re playing at home, in Kansas City or on Mars.
“I was looking for something (revealing about) Week 1, Monday night,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said.
Diving into a haystack, searching for a needle, Payton collected the football forensic evidence for Monday night games during Week 1. After crunching the numbers, his data team found something that piqued Payton’s interest in three key statistical categories: third-down conversion rate, time of possession and turnover ratio.
Even a knucklehead like me understands all three of those categories are crucial to winning in the NFL.
But what Payton discovered is third down, possession and turnovers are substantially more critical in determining the winner during the opening Monday night game of the year.
“It’s like a tick up 10% to 15% in each category,” Payton said. “If turnover ratio in any other NFL game is (predictive of) 78% winners, it’s closer to 90% winners in this game.”
Payton is such a shameless football geek that he leaps down rabbit holes when other NFL coaches grab one can of beer for the road and head out the door for home.
Did he really commission a research paper on what are the major factors that separate the winner from the loser in the narrow parameters of the Monday Night Football game during the opening week of the regular season?
Yes, Payton did.
With him, the hay not only is never in the barn, Payton is the rooster strutting inside the Broncos stable, pecking at every minute detail and cock-a-doodle-doing about the small stuff into the wee hours of the night.
“You guys have been around Coach Payton long enough to know,” Sutton said, “the hay isn’t in the barn until kickoff happens.”





