COLORADO SPRINGS — Expectations for the 2026 Air Force football season have been building for roughly two years, and the reasons for optimism have multiplied along the way.

It was September 2024 when the tectonic plates holding together the Mountain West ruptured, making it clear that beginning this season the Falcons would compete in a conference without the likes of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State.

While Air Force has more than held its own vs. that group, it has long been obvious a conference that will replace that group with North Dakota State, Northern Illinois and UTEP won’t quite carry the same competitive teeth.

If that wasn’t enough to raise the intrigue, last season brought the sudden emergence of quarterback Liam Szarka. As a sophomore, the Aurora native accomplished throwing and running feats the program had never seen. That included three consecutive games with 200 passing and 100 rushing yards, marks that put him on lists with dual-threat legends of college football like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.

Throw in a defense deep in experience that found its stride after working through growing pains (20.7 points per game allowed over the final six games), and it makes sense Air Force would carry confidence into a season that opens Saturday with a visit from FCS opponent Duquesne.

“I think we have a new fire, and we’re really just looking to win games,” junior cornerback Mikhail Seiken said. “We want to win 12 regular-season games and hopefully win the (Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy). That’s the goal.”

Challenges remain for a program coming off consecutive losing seasons and riding a five-game losing streak against its service academy rivals.

Aside from Szarka and fullback Owen Allen (750 rushing yards last season, second on the team only to Szarka’s 922), the skill positions were decimated by graduation. The team had 97 completed passes last year, but players who caught only 13 of those return.

“I think, overall, we’re all going to be very well prepared,” said Jonah Dawson, who is the team’s leading returning receiver (12 catches for 260 yards and a touchdown), after explaining the offseason work Szarka and the quarterbacks were able to put in with the receivers.

The offensive line also takes a hit in experience. Three players who started all 12 games graduated. There are two full-time starters returning along with two more who started at least one game.

The defensive line will also break in starters at three positions.

Also, while Szarka impressed, his season was cut short by an injury at a position that has routinely struggled to keep starters healthy.

Perhaps offsetting those concerns: Upperclassmen with some in-game experience are set to fill the gaps on the lines, and, should Szarka encounter trouble, there is experience behind him.

The big-picture outlook remains positive for a team navigating a conference schedule vs. something more akin to its peers.

“Probably, if you had to say in general, ‘How do you win?’” coach Troy Calhoun said. “I think defensively, it’s get your butt off the field. And, offensively, it’s moving the chains.”

Two years ago, the Falcons featured an entirely new offensive line and struggled to move the chains. A 5-7 season resulted. Last year it was getting the defense off the field behind a brand-new secondary manned with underclassmen that was the culprit in a five-game losing streak. The team finished 4-8.

Prior to that, however, the Falcons averaged 10 wins over the stretch of four full seasons when, by and large, there weren’t any obvious obstacles in a position group and with mostly solid play from the quarterbacks.

This team, at this point, seems to be built more like those 10-win mainstays. And, as it has known for two years, Air Force will face a schedule where some of the physical mismatches don’t figure to be as lopsided.

“Definitely, definitely big,” outside linebacker Chaz Barnett, a Highlands Ranch native, said of his expectations. “Defense, especially, I think we’re just going to be so much better this year. We’ve had so much time to grow as a unit. You can even see in the scrimmages, like it’s a whole different atmosphere. We’re all excited.

“I think it’s going to be a huge season for us.”