A mere six weeks ago, Donald Trump again took possession of the Oval Office, even though that seems like a few lifetimes ago.

If the predecessor administration was marked by a certain lethargy and sleepiness, Trump 2.0’s founding days were a period of hyperactivity. The nation would gladly order a supply of Ritalin.

Trump’s opening strategy of throwing everything at the wall has been described as one of “shock and awe.” Those who felt “awe” can discern our political divide versus those in “shock.”

His initial approval numbers measuring public sentiment were decently good, especially by Trump standards. Upon taking office and for those first few weeks, Trump enjoyed the approval of more than 55% of the country, depending on the moment and the survey. This was heady territory for a president who spent his first term in the 40% range, plus or minus a point or two.

But a presidency set to fast-forward is especially susceptible to a rapidly downward shift in fortunes.

Those mid-50 approval numbers have fallen to the mid-40s just a half-dozen weeks in. As of Feb. 19, a Reuters/Ipsos poll had him at 44% favorable. The intervening days since then have hardly improved that rating.

Many factors are at play. As a politician, Trump has always had an unusually high floor due to the unshakeable loyalty of his base. But that has been accompanied by a low-hanging ceiling as a near-equal number of Americans are hardened in their permanent opposition.

Further, with exceptions, second terms tend to be downhill slides. Given that Trump’s two terms are non-consecutive, the supposition is that his popularity on inauguration day is likely his high-water mark. Just as Joe Biden never again saw the 50% approval threshold following the bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump is unlikely to again see the positive side of the ledger on any consistent basis.

Trump owes his 2024 victory less to any widespread infatuation with his leadership than to a rejection of what the other party was selling. With Biden dispatched and Kamala Harris defeated, Trump will now be judged on his own merits and less in relative terms.

The political appeal of constant chaos is somewhat limited. Americans are open to the idea of downsizing government (even if more in theory than in practice) but expect a fair and orderly process. They are less than enamored with some unelected, tone-deaf, billionaire “co-president” rifling through sensitive and private records.

In a serious world, the vision of Trump’s cronies turning Gaza into some real estate development invites parody and defies credibility. Further, voters expect some basic coherence in picking sides between Ukraine and Putin’s Russia.

Trump’s day-one pardons of Jan. 6 rioters only served to bring his worst hours to the front and center. It was his ultimate indulgence of personal grievance. His pardon of former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich and his order to halt the prosecution of New York City Mayor Eric Adams signal that justice is a secondary consideration to old-fashioned political transactions.

As to the social media photo Trump’s team released of him in royal crown and robe with the caption “Long live the king” (in all capital letters, of course), he might want to ponder on America’s 250-year distaste for the monarchy.

Moreover, much of the low-hanging fruit has been picked during these six weeks. “Gulf of America,” anyone? Tougher days lie ahead.

We will see if Trump’s legislative tacticians can get his prized “big beautiful bill” through a factionalized GOP caucus with the narrowest of Republican majorities. We will also see how the public reacts to major reductions in Medicaid and other low-income supports, used incidentally by a significant share of his constituents, to finance continued tax cuts for Elon Musk and the uber-wealthy.

Another debt ceiling deadline looms. Inflation is ticking back up, even before the impact of Trump’s tariffs hit. Many voters might chafe at the visuals and the all-too-human stories if his promised mass deportations ever reach scale.

Most of all, how does Trump react to an adverse court ruling? Does he ignore it, as threatened, and weather the inevitable firestorm of mass protest? What if there is another major world conflagration, prompted at least in part by Trump’s abandonment of historic alliances?

The inaugural and the mad rush of those early days represented peak Trump. Depletion will be a running theme of the 202 weeks still left in his presidency.

Though whatever challenges await Trump and whatever pratfalls he cannot resist, he holds one continuing advantage. That being the stunning lack of message and messenger on the part of opposition Democrats.

For Donald Trump and his minions, Democratic fecklessness is the gift that keeps on giving.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann. He wrote this column before last Friday’s meeting between President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskyy.