Five weeks after Republicans gathered for their convention in Milwaukee, Democrats are assembling 90 miles down the Lake Michigan waterfront in Chicago. What a difference those interim weeks have made. Our political process is running on fast-forward.

Donald Trump exited Milwaukee riding high. His convention had been a smooth affair, even if his own rambling, self-indulgent speech left the four days without the anticipated climax.

The assassination attempt from which he emerged mostly unscathed provided an iconic image. His opponent at the time, President Joe Biden, was a declining figure in free-fall. All the swing states were trending notably in Trump’s direction. Even some reliably blue states were thought to be up for grabs.

Trump was only one step short of calling the moving vans to Mar-a-Lago for what seemed to be an inevitable move back to the White House.

How times can change, and how so quickly. Biden’s withdrawal opened the floodgates for a country deeply desperate for “someone else.”

Kamala Harris, an underperformer in her brief presidential race four years ago and, in many respects, as vice president, somehow found her stride as she stepped into the void. For countless voters, the relief was palpable for an alternative to a stale grudge match between two old men too long on the stage.

Nikki Haley may have been prescient when she commented back in January, “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.”

Since Biden involuntarily handed off the baton, most everything has broken Harris’ way. Her chosen running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, offered an upbeat contrast to the controversy prone JD Vance. Her rallies have filled arenas with enthusiasm. She has, as they say, won the internet.

Arguably, Harris appears to have taken up residency deep inside Trump’s head. She has thrown him far off his game. Gone is the towering, domineering figure, heroically raising his fist moments after surviving an assassin’s bullet, and seemingly destined to return to power.

Instead, voters again see the brooding, bigoted, self-absorbed, rage-filled, ever-older figure they had rejected in three straight elections of 2018, 2020 and 2022.

Trump and his forces had figured out the contrast, or the “frame” to use the word of those in the political biz, versus Biden. So far, they have failed to do so in juxtaposition to their new opponent. He has been largely off the campaign trail over recent weeks, staying home to feed his grievances.

In his limited appearances, Trump has gone as far as to preview the line of attack he will use to gin up his supporters should he lose in November. He is laying the predicate that Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’ emergence were somehow illegal, even unconstitutional.

Trump, Vance and a number of their congressional and media acolytes have even alleged that the Democratic changing of the guard is tantamount to a “coup.” From where I sit, those who stirred or explained away the events of Jan. 6 might be more judicious in their use of that particular word.

For all these reasons, Democrats are descending on Chicago high in spirits and full of verve. They have managed to swap out what was surely a losing hand for new, better cards.

Bully to them even as I caution that Harris’ good vibes should not lead to irrational exuberance. Democrats are back in the game, but probably no more than that.

True, Harris now is leading by small margins in some swing-state polls. Voters disinclined to reinstate Trump now have a place to go.

But this remains a close election, at best, for Democrats with a difficult electoral map. If Harris is to have a chance come election day, she needs to be a couple of points ahead in national polls due to that map and to Trump’s history of under-polling with some of those intending to pull the Trump lever not willing to own it in polite company.

The magic number of the electoral college is 270. Harris starts with a reliably blue count of 225 to Trump’s red tally of 235. If Harris can lock down the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, that would bring her total to 269. Add in a single possible electoral vote from Nebraska’s Omaha district and she reaches the winning number.

Harris also has a southern path of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. However, even if she sweeps all three, the Democratic ticket will remain a dozen electoral votes short. Either Michigan or Pennsylvania would still be required.

North Carolina is potentially also gettable, especially with Republicans running a wacky-as-they-come gubernatorial candidate. But the Tarheel state would be gravy for Democrats. It tips in their favor only after a number of other targets.

To date, Harris is running a campaign of atmospherics, momentum and memes. It is long on intangibles and short on specifics. That has served her very well for four weeks, but there are still 11 weeks to go.

Her choice to avoid news conferences or in-depth interviews has worked so far. But that only elevates the stakes and scrutiny when she can no longer avoid such cross-examination.

At some point, it is also inevitable that much of the mainstream press will drop the adoration, even just momentarily, and put her under a microscope.

In short order, Harris has succeeded beyond expectation in bringing home and electrifying the Democratic base. Nonetheless, while undecided, middle-ground voters are shrinking in number, they still hold the key to this election.

Harris’s opening message has been long on “freedom.” To reach those persuadable voters she still needs, her emphasis might want to change to security. That is, as in family security in volatile economic times; job security; border security; the security of women’s reproductive choices; and the security of democracy itself.

While Harris is dominating the campaign of vibes, the issue set still benefits Trump. The inescapable fact is that many of the policies of the Biden administration remain highly unpopular. Harris’s challenge is to maintain the excitement she has generated while minimizing or turning around her vulnerability on many top-of-mind issues.

As they convene this week, Democrats are very much alive. But their road remains narrow and perilous as Harris’s boomlet surely will fade and tough questions await.

If the past nine years have taught us nothing else, we should have learned that Donald Trump is never to be underestimated. Just ask President Hillary Clinton who figured that she would soon be giving her valedictory speech after two terms in office.

Eric Sondermann is a Colorado-based independent political commentator. He writes regularly for ColoradoPolitics and the Gazette newspapers. Reach him at EWS@EricSondermann.com; follow him at @EricSondermann