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COLUMN: The pitfalls of relying on magical thinking

This is an open plea to Christian pastors: Please, please help show the world you can be a good Christian without magical thinking. In return, I’ll passionately defend you in the public sphere against all who accuse you of ignorance, greed, stupidity, and a host of other words not suitable for a family newspaper. Trust me, they’re out there, I hear from them all the time. Just as, on occasion, I hear from you.

Magical thinking is what happens your brain gets things wrong. Our brains been shaped over thousands of years of evolution to seek patterns in the world. That trait has enabled us to predict the seasons, follow animal herds for food, cultivate plants so we could stay in one place, and survive long enough to pass on our genes to the next generation.

The discovery of patterns in the world eventually became known as science; the intellectual tools to express them clearly became mathematics. These twin triumphs of human achievement have led humanity to a world of progress and abundance, the likes of which our ancestors could never have imagined.

Unfortunately, sometimes our pattern-seeking intuition goes awry. In a world full of infinitely many random events, we often make up patterns where there are none. We see meaning where there is just noise.

We can check this by trying to come up with different meanings, different patterns that say different things, from the same collection of randomness. If we can do that, we can be pretty confident the pattern we thought we found isn’t really there.

Consider, for example, the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. The New York Times was able to find extensive quotes from Christian delegates at the Republican convention, as well as pastors, who saw supernatural events behind Trump’s survival. The former president has been eager to exploit this, saying “I’m not supposed to be here.” and “It was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening.”

Supposedly the bullet in question was fired at 6:11 p.m. I have been unable to confirm that from independent sources, but let’s give the benefit of the doubt. There is a meme circulating that cites Ephesians 6:11 as evidence of supernatural forces at work, as the verse refers to donning the “armor of God.”

But aren’t there 66 books of the Bible, each with its own 6:11? How about Genesis 6:11, which ends with the Hebrew word “hamas”? How about Galatians 6:11, “See what large letters I use as a write to you with my own hand”? Is that a reference to a teleprompter? How about Deuteronomy 6:11, that talks about “houses full of good things that you did not provide”? Or my favorite, Ecclesiastes 6:11, “The more words that are spoken, the more smoke there is in the air.”

Why pick Ephesians, except that it supports what some people want to believe? Nowadays, we call that “confirmation bias”. To me, that’s just a fancy term for magical thinking. It’s what happens when your brain searches for patterns in random events. With enough looking and enough randomness, you can find just about anything.

But let’s suppose you don’t buy any of the science, probability theory, or contemporary understanding of how the brain works. Their remains, at least for me, an agonizingly painful question supporters of the divine intervention theory of Trump’s survival must answer.

Corey Comperatore was a retired fire chief. When he heard the gunshots, he immediately shielded his wife and daughter. Comperatore was killed by the sniper, the only casualty that day. The question this poses I leave to you.

Barry Fagin is the author of “The Radical Center” and a frequent speaker and writer on skepticism and critical thinking. He is hiking across England from one coast to the other, following Hadrian’s Wall.

Barry Fagin
Barry Fagin
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