ST. LOUIS — With the Cardinals’ revamped rotation, bolstered bullpen and blossoming batting order — in addition to the Brewers losing their manager and top pitcher — there’s this sense that the NL Central is the Cardinals’ for the taking.

But it’s going to be a fight, folks.

The Cubs won 83 games last year, have a potent 1-2 pitching punch (including a Cy Young candidate), a daunting bullpen, a golden defense and a couple big bats … with the seemingly strong possibility of adding another, be it free agent Cody Bellinger (.881 OPS in 2023) or Matt Chapman (.755 OPS and Gold Glove at third).

And, frankly, the Cubs didn’t nab Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell to miss the playoffs.

The Cardinals will be better, too. They won 71 games last year, hard to be worse. It was a brutal experience for everyone involved.

But even with the new faces and ace, St. Louis doesn’t look like a starting rotation of a team in the 90-win range.

Now, it depends on which betting site you look at, but the Cardinals are projected right around 85 wins for 2024. The Cubs are around 84. Oh, and the NL Central’s Reds are around 82. ZiPS, which are data projections featured on FanGraphs, has the Cards as just slight favorites in the division, just north of the Northsiders.

But if I’m St. Louis — be it the Cardinals or the fan base — I’d be worried about rivals in blue.

Especially because the Cubs sit right around $205 million for its payroll — and the tax threshold is $237 million. There is still money to spend and still offense to buy.

The famously tough-negotiating agent Scott Boras represents both Bellinger and Chapman (as well as available pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell). It’s not a sure thing that the Cubs will lock in one of these guys, but it sure makes sense for the Cubs to do so.

Bellinger, 28, batted .307 last year with 26 homers in 130 games. He finished 10th in the MVP voting. And at home, in those friendly confines, he tallied an OPS of .902.

His 2021 and 2022 were frighteningly abysmal with the Dodgers. But the former MVP rediscovered his swagger in Chicago, something he’ll naturally consider during free agency.

Again, though — even if the Cubs don’t get Bellinger (or Chapman, a former MVP candidate), the team, as is, projects to play close to the Cardinals’ level.

Sure, from the outset, a Cards-Cubs comparison can make one hesitate, especially because the Cubs’ offense looks inferior to the Cardinals’ intimidating lineup. But baseball games can be won different ways, of course. And last year, the Cubs had the sixth-most defensive runs saved in Major League Baseball. The ageless Kyle Hendricks, known to pitch to contact, benefitted from the fielding — he posted a 3.74 ERA last season.

Ace Justin Steele, meanwhile, doesn’t even need much of a defense. In the National League, he finished second in fielding independent pitching (FIP). Only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (2.85 FIP) bested Steele’s 3.02. And as for the mainstay stats, Steele went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA. He had 176 strikeouts in 173 1/3 innings … and only 36 walks.

And the Cubs’ biggest free agent, so far anyway, was starting pitcher Shota Imanaga, who FanGraphs projects will have a 3.2 WAR in 2024 (Steele is projected at 3.4). As for the Cardinals, Sonny Gray has the highest-projected pitching WAR at 3.6, but second on the staff is Miles Mikolas at just 2.1.

And last week, the Cubs splurged on an enticing arm out of the bullpen — Houston’s Hector Neris for a reported $9 million. Last year, he pitched in 71 games … and had a 1.71 ERA. And the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay had a 2.67 ERA and 22 saves. Oh, and the addition of Counsell makes their bullpen better – he’s a savvy thinker, pushes the right buttons and oversaw the NL’s best ‘pen in 2023.

Similar to the Cardinals, the Cubs have a couple moveable pieces around the field — even Bellinger could play outfield or first base. And it would make sense to make room for a particular prospect. Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, is considered an elite defensive player. And in the minors, he’s tallied a .891 OPS.

And here’s something to keep in mind come the trade deadline — the Cubs have seven prospects on the MLB Pipeline top-100 list. That’s the most of any organization.

As for Cards-Cubs, if anything, this season should showcase a resuscitation of the rivalry. The next chapter. Even if these teams aren’t the Dodgers or Braves (or Phillies or Padres), the two should be playing meaningful games all summer — and will face off 11 times, beginning May 24 at Busch Stadium.

For the Cardinals to become the Cardinals again, they’ll have to do what they so often have done — be better than the Chicago Cubs. But it won’t be simple to do so in 2024.

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